Sistemang Hinihimay na Solyar-Kabayo: Isang Komprehensibong Solusyon sa disenyo para sa mga Aplikasyon ng Walang Grid

1. Pagkakatawan at Background​

​1.1 Mga Hamon ng mga System ng Power Generation na May Iisang Pinagmulan​

Ang tradisyonal na nakatayo lamang na photovoltaic (PV) o wind power generation systems ay may inherent na kahinaan. Ang pag-generate ng kapangyarihan mula sa PV ay apektado ng mga siklo ng araw at kondisyon ng panahon, samantalang ang pag-generate ng kapangyarihan mula sa hangin ay nagsasalamin ng hindi matatag na resources ng hangin, na nagdudulot ng malaking pagbabago sa output ng kapangyarihan. Upang matiyak ang patuloy na supply ng kapangyarihan, kinakailangan ang malaking capacity ng battery banks para sa energy storage at balance. Gayunpaman, ang mga battery na sumasailalim sa madalas na charge-discharge cycles ay madaling mapabilang sa isang estado ng undercharge sa mahabang panahon sa ilalim ng mahigpit na kondisyon ng operasyon, na nagreresulta sa mas maikling praktikal na service life kaysa sa teoretikal na halaga. Mas kritikal pa rito, ang mataas na gastos ng mga battery ay nangangahulugan na ang kanilang total lifecycle cost ay maaaring lumapit o kahit lumampas sa gastos ng mga PV modules o wind turbines mismo. Kaya, ang pag-extend ng battery life at pagbawas ng gastos ng sistema ay naging core challenges sa pag-optimize ng mga standalone power systems.

​1.2 Mahalagang Advantages ng Hybrid Wind-Solar Power Generation​

Ang teknolohiya ng hybrid wind-solar power generation ay epektibong nagsusulong sa intermittency ng iisang pinagmulan ng enerhiya sa pamamagitan ng organic combination ng PV at wind power, ang dalawang renewable energy sources. Ang hangin at solar energy ay nagpapakita ng natural complementarity sa oras (araw/gabi, mga panahon): ang malakas na sikat ng araw sa araw kadalasang nagsasabay sa malakas na hangin sa gabi; ang magandang solar irradiation sa tag-init maaaring magkasabay sa sapat na resources ng hangin sa taglamig. Ang complementarity na ito ay nagbibigay:

• Significant extension ng effective charging time para sa batteries, na nagbabawas ng oras na nililipon sila sa isang estado ng undercharged, na nagsisiguro ng substantial prolonging ng battery service life.
• Pagbabawas sa required battery capacity. Dahil ang probability na parehong hangin at solar ay hindi available sa parehong oras ay mababa, ang sistema ay maaaring laging magbigay ng kapangyarihan sa load, na nagbibigay-daan para sa paggamit ng mas maliit na capacity ng battery bank.
• Ang mga pag-aaral sa lokal at internasyonal ay nagsasalamin na ang mga hybrid wind-solar systems ay mas superior sa single-source power generation systems sa parehong reliabilidad ng power supply at lifecycle cost-effectiveness.

​1.3 Kakulangan ng Existing Design Methods at Inirerekomendang Solusyon​

Ang kasalukuyang disenyo ng sistema ay may mga hamon. Ang professional simulation software mula sa ibang bansa ay mahal, at ang kanilang core models ay kadalasang confidential, na nagpapahihirap sa widespread adoption. Samantala, ang karamihan sa simplified design methods ay hindi sapat—sila ay umaasa masyadong sa meteorological averages na walang detalye, o gumagamit ng linear simplified models na nagreresulta sa limitadong accuracy at mahinang applicability.

Ang solusyon na ito ay nagnanais na ipropose ang isang set ng accurate at practical computer-aided design methodologies upang tugunan ang mga isyung ito.

​II. System Composition at Core Technical Models​

​2.1 System Architecture​

Ang hybrid wind-solar power generation system na idisenyo sa solusyon na ito ay isang ganap na standalone off-grid system, na walang backup power sources tulad ng diesel generators. Ang core components ay kinabibilangan ng:

• ​Power Generation Unit:​​ Wind turbine generators, PV array.
• ​Energy Storage and Management Unit:​​ Battery bank, charge controller (para sa pag-manage ng charging at discharging).
• ​Protection and Conversion Unit:​​ Diversion load (prevents battery overcharge, protects inverter), inverter (converts DC to AC to meet most load requirements).
• ​Power Consumption Unit:​​ Load.

​2.2 Accurate Power Generation Calculation Models​

Upang makamit ang optimized design, kami ay naitatag ang accurate hourly power generation calculation models.

• ​PV Array Model:​​
1. ​Solar Radiation Transposition:​​ Utilizes an advanced anisotropic sky diffuse model to accurately transpose horizontal solar radiation data measured by weather stations to the irradiance incident on the tilted surface of the PV modules, comprehensively considering direct beam radiation, sky diffuse radiation, and ground-reflected radiation.
2. ​Module Characteristic Simulation:​​ Employs a precise physical model to characterize the nonlinear output characteristics of PV modules, fully accounting for the effects of irradiance and ambient temperature on module output voltage and current, ensuring the accuracy of power generation calculations.
• ​Wind Turbine Model:​​
1. ​Wind Speed Correction:​​ Corrects the reference height wind speed from meteorological data to the actual hub height wind speed based on the exponential law governing wind speed variation with height.
2. ​Power Curve Fitting:​​ Uses a segmented function (different binomial equations for different wind speed intervals) to achieve high-precision fitting of the turbine's actual power output curve, enabling accurate hourly energy calculation based on wind speed data.

​2.3 Battery Dynamic Characteristic Model​

Ang battery ay ang core energy storage component, na may dynamically changing states. Ang modelo ay pangunahing nakatuon sa:

• ​State of Charge (SOC) Calculation:​​ Dynamically simulates the battery's charge and discharge processes based on the relationship between power generation and load consumption at each time step, accurately calculating the remaining capacity, while considering practical factors like self-discharge rate, charging efficiency, and inverter efficiency.
• ​Charge-Discharge Management:​​ To extend battery life, a reasonable SOC operating range is defined (e.g., limiting the maximum depth of discharge to 50%), and a model correlating float charge voltage with SOC and ambient temperature is established to accurately determine charging conditions.

​III. System Optimization and Sizing Methodology​

​3.1 Power Supply Reliability Indicators​

The design prioritizes meeting the user's specified power supply reliability requirements. Key indicators include:

• ​Loss of Power Supply Probability (LPSP):​​ The ratio of system outage time to the total evaluation time, intuitively reflecting supply continuity.
• ​Loss of Load Probability (LLP):​​ The ratio of the load power demand not met by the system to the total demand. This is the most critical core indicator for system optimization design.

​3.2 Step-by-Step Optimization Design Process​

This solution adopts a systematic optimization process, aiming to minimize the initial investment cost of equipment to find the optimal configuration.

1. ​Step 1: Optimize PV and Battery Configuration for a Fixed Wind Turbine Capacity​
• ​Core Task:​​ Under the condition that the wind turbine model and quantity are fixed, find the combination of PV module and battery capacities that meets the predetermined reliability indicator (LPSP) and results in the lowest total equipment cost.
• ​Implementation Method:​​ Through simulation calculations, plot the "balance curve" representing all PV and battery configurations that meet the reliability requirement. Then, using the cost tangent method or computer program screening based on equipment unit prices, determine the unique optimal combination with the lowest cost.
2. ​Step 2: Global Optimization by Varying Wind Turbine Capacity​
• ​Core Task:​​ Change the wind turbine capacity or number, repeat the optimization process of Step 1, and obtain a series of optimal configurations and their corresponding costs for different wind turbine capacities.
• ​Final Decision:​​ Compare the total costs of all candidate solutions and select the wind-PV-battery combination with the globally lowest cost as the final optimized system configuration.

​3.3 System Performance Simulation and Output​

After determining the optimal configuration, the system's annual operation can be simulated hour-by-hour, generating detailed reports including:

• ​Time Dimension:​​ Hourly battery state of charge, system energy balance.
• ​Statistical Dimension:​​ Daily/monthly/annual unmet load energy, reliability indicators (LPSP, LLP), wind/solar power generation share, energy surplus and deficit situations, etc.

​IV. Conclusion​

The optimized design method for hybrid wind-solar power generation systems proposed in this solution, based on comprehensive mathematical models and precise local meteorological data, can uniquely determine the system configuration with the minimum initial equipment investment cost while satisfying specific user electricity demands and power supply reliability requirements. This method effectively addresses the shortcomings of single-source power generation systems, overcomes the limitations of existing design approaches, and provides a powerful tool for the scientific, efficient, and economical design of hybrid wind-solar power generation systems, holding significant value for engineering applications.