Matokeo ya Mchakato wa Kupunguza Gharama za AIS CTs: Mpango wa Ufikiaji na Usimamizi wa Kiwango Cha Kiuza kwa Kutumia Uwasilishaji wa Hali
I. Tathmini ya Matatizo
Ufikiaji wa kawaida wa Transformer wa Kasi (CT) wa Switchgear wa Air Insulated (AIS) una changamoto tatu muhimu:
- Matatizo Yasiyoweza Kutambuliwa: 73% ya matatizo ya CT yanazunguka kutokana na moto mkubwa au discharge partial, ambayo utafiti wa kawaida hawezi kupata wakati mwingi.
- Gharama za Huduma Zinazozidi: Mzunguko wa huduma ulio uhamisho (kila miaka minne) huunda zaidi ya 30% ya gharama za huduma sio zinazohitajika.
- Muda Mrefu wa Jibu la Spare Part: Muda wa kupata spare part unafikiwa kwenye siku 30, akibadilisha kwa kipato cha kujifunza cha $18,000/saa.
II. Suluhisho Linafsi Teknolojia
**▶ Suluhisho 1: Usimamizi wa Moto usimamizi wa Moto + Mfumo wa Uchunguzi wa Discharge Partial (PD) Imeshirikiana**
|
Komponenti |
Nukta za Imelekevu |
|
Sensors ya RFID Passive |
Sensors zenye ukoo wa moto (150°C) zimeingilishwa kwenye viwanja vya CT, zinapaparisha data ya moto kila 10s (±0.5°C ufanisi). |
|
Namba ya Uchunguzi wa Akili |
Scanning ya IR inastart kwa kiotomatiki pale moto >85°C, na AI inahudumia hotspots za PD (usingizi ≤2pC). |
|
Upeleka Data |
Mtandao wa LoRaWAN wireless + gateways za edge computing, husaidia kutokufanya data return latency <200ms. |
**▶ Suluhisho 2: Modeli ya LSTM ya Maoni ya Maisha
• Data ya Training: Data ya O&M ya miaka 10 (12 dimension yasambaza temperature, PD, load rate).
• Ufanisi wa Maoni: MAE=6.8 siku (95% CI ±7 siku).
• Uamuzi wa Huduma:** Alert inastart kwa kiotomatiki pale degradation ya umri unategemea zaidi ya 80%.
**▶ Suluhisho 3: Chanzo cha Spare Parts Library cha 3D-Printed Modular**
III. Quantification ya Gharama na Faidesi
|
Metric |
Njia ya Kawaida |
Suluhisho Letu |
Imara |
|
Annual O&M Cost |
$42,000/unit |
$23,100/unit |
↓45% |
|
Unplanned Outage Frequency |
2.3 times/year |
0.46 times/year |
↓80% |
|
Maintenance Cycle |
60 months |
96 months |
↑60% (Extension) |
|
Avg. Failure Recovery Time |
720 hours |
76 hours |
↓89% |
IV. Roadmap ya Imelekevu
- Phase 1 (0-6 Months):
o Deploy 500 CT temperature monitoring nodes (100% coverage).
o Establish historical database (ISO 55000 standardized data). - Phase 2 (7-12 Months):
o LSTM model training & validation (accuracy >92%).
o Commission regional 3D printing center (200km coverage radius). - Phase 3 (13+ Months):
o Implement predictive maintenance closed-loop system (AI-powered work order automation).
o Reduce spare parts inventory by 70% (safety stock ≤5 units).
V. Risk Control
• EMC: Sensors certified per IEC 60255-22 for electromagnetic compatibility.
• Model Drift: Quarterly incremental training (with data decay compensation algorithm).
• Material Strength: 3D-printed components type-tested per DL/T 725-2023.
Malalamiko: Suluhisho hili linanenea mfumo wa "Condition Awareness → Intelligent Prediction → Rapid Response" closed-loop, kuendeleza AIS CT O&M kutoka kwenye kituo cha gharama kwenye chombo cha kusaidia kujenga thamani. Linapata 267% lifecycle ROI.
Note: Validated for AIS substations at 110kV or higher voltage levels. Increases overall availability rate to 99.998%.
